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5 pm ET UPDATE

Earl continues to tend westward and will provide, if nothing else, a scare to the NC & NE coast; however, I believe that most of that coast will experience Tropical Storm if not Hurricane Conditions.

I do take issue with the NHC Forecast Track of Fiona as well as their intensity forecast.  How can Fiona move to the NW that much when Earl is in front and will leave an eddy ridge that will stall Fiona and then move it more to the west. See Wind Analysis Loop below. As soon as the NHC can look past the work involved in Earl, they will notice this.  Also, INVEST 98L to the SE of Fiona will become Gaston and track even more to the west looking at the Caribbean or maybe the Gulf.  Models are sniffing at this so we will see in a few days.

So if you are in NC or up the Eastern Seaboard, watch Earl closely and listen to your local Emergency Management Agencies.  Get a NOAA WeatherAlert Radio!

As I have mentioned before, Surf’s Up for Florida, but watch the Rip Currents! — Steve B.