Look at the evidence and decide for yourself

Gummi BearFeb 138134


No flowery introductions this time, I’m going straight into it.

The question about Justin Trudeau’s male parentage started off as a conspiracy theory in 2016 when the Prime Minister released this glowing tribute following the death of Fidel Castro.

The reaction to this statement ranged from anger and derision on the right to “raised eyebrows” on the left, so it’s not like his statement does not warrant taking a closer look.

However, his statement should not have come as a surprise to anybody with a long enough memory to remember the family’s history with Castro… more on this later. It was also at this time that people started comparing pictures of Justin Trudeau and Fidel Castro and the similarities are striking, especially if considered within the context of what Pierre Trudeau looks like.

So, this is how the conspiracy theory started. Now people might have different definitions for “conspiracy theories” as the word made my list of Top 100 Words/Phrases that have completely lost their meaning. 

But for the sake of this exercise, I approached it as I always approach traditional conspiracy theories. I start off by looking at the most compelling arguments against the conspiracy theory. Here is the latest debunk by the New York Times’ @danbilefsky:

The main point made in this article is that the timing of when the Trudeaus first met Castro does not fit with Justin Trudeau’s birthdate. Justin was born on December 25th, 1971, a full four years before the first official visit by the Trudeaus (and thus Justin’s mother Margaret) to Cuba in 1976. As the NYT article points out: “Given her high profile, it would have been highly unlikely for Mrs. Trudeau to have slipped into Cuba undetected.”

This same argument is made in this Vice Article from 2016 when the rumors first started.

A fact check by Snopes similarly found the conspiracy theory to be false.

On the pro-conspiracy theory side, this 2020 Medium article by Karen Leibowitcz (possible pseudonym?) makes the best case for Fidel Castro actually being Justin’s father:

This article goes much deeper into the life history of the Trudeaus and the explanation for how Margaret Trudeau could have been in Cuba in the Spring of 1971. I found this article well researched and I could not find any factual errors in it.

This article also distances the theory from some elements which are either not corroborated or irrelevant:

  • It casts doubt on the “rumor that Fidel Castrol’s recently deceased son Fidel Angelo Castro Diaz-Balart (“Fidelito”) announced Justin Trudeau was his half-brother in his suicide note.” I also have found no media sources reporting this.
  • It doesn’t make Justin’s political views being similar to Castro’s as a relevant factor. This is a strawman used to ridicule the theory, but it’s a silly argument because Pierre Trudeau’s politics were just as radical as Castro’s.

My Analysis

There are two main aspects of my analysis:

  1. First is whether the opportunity existed for Margaret Trudeau to have met Fidel Castro around the time of Justin Trudeau’s conception and whether such a pairing could be considered plausible.
  2. Second are the physical characteristics of Justin Trudeau, as compared to those of Pierre Trudeau and Fidel Castro.

The Trudeau Family and Fidel Castro

The official story states that Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau first met Castro on his visit to Cuba in January of 1976. This was controversial at the time because it was the first visit by the leader of a NATO member to Cuba.

Accompanied by his wife, Margaret, and their 4-month-old son Michel, the Trudeaus hit it off with the Cuban dictator on the tarmac of the airport upon their arrival. One might even say there was a certain amount of familiarity, but that’s conjecture.

But it is undeniable that Fidel Castro and Margaret displayed a special fondness for each other on this visit.

Below are a few excerpts from John English’s Biography of Pierre Trudeau – Just Watch Me – regarding the 1976 visit to Cuba:

Castro’s outrageous flirting charmed them both: he surprised them late one evening when, in his “silken English,” he told Margaret: “You know my eyes are not very strong, so every day to make them stronger I force myself to look at the sun. I find it very hard. But do you know what I find harder? That is to look into the blue of your eyes.” Not surprisingly, Margaret, who had found official and political life formalistic and tedious, thought Cuba (and Castro) thoroughly captivating, so unlike the grey, socialist, workers’ state she had expected.

Castro proposed that, on their last night on the island, he spirit his guests away from officials and the press for an unforgettable stay on Cayo Largo, a small key where they would share a two-bedroom bungalow and a small shed. Margaret begged Trudeau to let her accompany him, a request that Ivan Head, whom Margaret described as “pompous and somewhat self-important,” promptly opposed. Enthralled with Margaret, Castro would not hear of her absence, and Pierre finally agreed she could go.

English, John. Just Watch Me (p. 317). Knopf Canada.

On that final evening in Cuba, protocol vanished in a haze of “loud music, good food, bright colors” as they all danced late into the night. When they had to say their farewells next day, Margaret was overcome by joyful tears. Trudeau commented wryly to his wife: “I’m glad you’re still with me. I thought you would ask for asylum.”

English, John. Just Watch Me (p. 318). Knopf Canada.

None of this should be surprising given what we know of Fidel Castro as a playboy who fathered quite a few illegitimate children.

This GQ profile from 2016 outlines his legendary sexual appetite: 

The dictator had a rapacious sexual appetite, according to a former Castro insider. The New York Post reported that Castro had sex with at least two women a day; at lunch, dinner and sometimes at breakfast. His guards would prowl the beaches of Havana to recruit women. A Vanity Fair reporter in 2008 revealed that he loved to flirt and littered his speech with crude sexual innuendos. When asked how many children he had, he said, laughing, “Well, I don’t have a tribe. Not that much, fewer than a dozen.”

But of course, we are getting ahead of ourselves. This was in 1976 when Justin Trudeau would have already been 4 years old and the key lies in what happened in 1971. The point was that a special relationship between Fidel and Margaret is well documented in 1976.

But before we go back to 1971, I want to go back a little further and look at who Pierre Trudeau was before becoming Prime Minister of Canada

The first thing to know about Pierre Trudeau is that if he’s not an actual communist himself, he’s the world’s greatest communist sympathizer. His own comments relating to his travels to the Soviet Union, China, and Cuba leave no doubt about this. This article covers this pretty clearly:

Click for Article

Pierre Trudeau was a major fanboy of Marxist revolutionaries, particularly Fidel Castro. In fact, in 1960, Pierre Trudeau tried to paddle his way to Cuba in a canoe (he had previously visited to cut sugarcane in 1949). 

The official story says that he didn’t make it, having to return after making it about halfway there.

Click for Article

But this clip from Pierre Trudeau’s DVD Memoirs would indicate that they did make it and actually met in 1960 (the video incorrectly states 1961 instead of 1960).

“His 1961 attempt to row a jerry-rigged canoe from Florida to Cuba was a source of great amusement to Fidel Castro, whom Trudeau encountered at the time, and with whom Trudeau would eventually develop a close friendship.”

Backup link

If you want to go further down the rabbit hole about how Trudeau actually met Castro in 1960, you can read more on this blog here. It goes a bit too deep for my purposes and there’s entirely too much information there for me to vet. Also, I would need a better understanding of Canadian history, especially during that time period, to make an assessment. So I don’t know if this is accurate.

But whether Pierre Trudeau actually made it to Cuba in 1960 is besides the point in my opinion. The takeaway is how committed the man was to making it to Cuba to meet Fidel Castro. It’s hard to definitively establish that first contact was made in 1960, but Trudeau’s motivation is made clear by this crossing attempt.

Finally, we fast forward to April of 1971. The Trudeaus were married on March 4th, 1971. And according to this sourced excerpt from Wikipedia, they took a second honeymoon to the Caribbean in April during which time they visited an “unidentified island”.

In 1971, the Trudeaus took a second honeymoon in the Caribbean to Barbados and an unidentified nearby island then Tobago, then to Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (including both Bequia and St. Vincent) with Pierre taking a side-trip to Trinidad while Margaret stayed in Tobago.

This trip is covered in this article about the Trudeau visit to the Caribbean in the April 13th, 1971 publication of The Ottawa Journal. 

So indeed there is a trip to an unidentified island which could be Cuba. This is used to create the premise that the opportunity existed for the Trudeaus to have secretly met with Fidel Castro.

I don’t think it’s necessary to think that the meeting took place on this “secret island” which may or may not have been Cuba. In fact, it could have been on any of the other islands they visited. Remember, they visited 6 different islands:

  1. Barbados
  2. Unidentified Island
  3. Tobago
  4. Bequia
  5. St. Vincent
  6. Trinidad (just Pierre Trudeau)

The most important thing in that article is that Pierre Trudeau was due back in Parliament on Wednesday, April 14th, 1971. So this would mark the end of their trip.

Given how many islands they visited, there is no way that the trip began on Thursday, April, 8th 1971 when they arrived in Barbados according to the article. It had to have started much earlier.

Using April 14th, 1971 as the day we know that they are back in Canada, then the trip would have started at least two weeks prior putting arrival in the Caribbean somewhere near the end of the last week in March 1971.

That means their arrival in the Caribbean is roughly 9 months before Justin’s birth on December 25th, 1971. So a plausible timeframe exists.

We also know that Trudeau had officially begun communication with Castro by 1970 according to “Three Nights in Havana” written by Robert Wright:

Pierre Trudeau’s and Fidel Castro’s paths crossed for the first time in 1970, when the Canadian government sought to negotiate the exile of members of the FLQ, who had kidnapped British trade commissioner James Cross.  Fidel Castro obliged the Canadian PM by providing a refuge, and in a private letter Mr. Trudeau later extended his heartfelt gratitude.

Therefore the two were also already in contact, and we know what a big fan Pierre Trudeau was of the communist leader in Cuba. It is not unreasonable to think that the Canadian PM would have wanted to meet Fidel Castro unofficially.

So then the final question is why would Margaret be into something like this. This is the easiest part to explain because the life of Margaret Trudeau is well documented.

I’ll quote the 2020 Medium Article by Karen Leibowitcz because it gives the most succinct overview of “flower child” Margaret Trudeau:

Margaret Trudeau was a partier who unquestionably had sex with men while married to Pierre. Nobody knows if Pierre objected. They met when he was 48 and she was 18. They got married when he was 53 and she was 23. Their marriage surprised Canada because Pierre had been a lifelong playboy with no wife or children. He would be turning 60 when she was barely out of her 20’s. She publicly states today she suffered from bipolar disorder and self-control issues. She smuggled drugs in the Prime Minister’s official government luggage. She sneaked away from official functions to get high. She partied scantily clad at Studio 54. She became embroiled in a scandal for having sex with Ted Kennedy (gross). According to Keith Richards of the Rolling Stones, Pierre broke up with her while she was having an affair with Ronnie Wood. The list goes on.

She was also admittedly a huge fan of Castro and their mutual admiration during the official visit in 1976 is documented.

So is there a plausible timeframe, motivation, and opportunity? The answer is yes.

This does not equal proof, but it does mean that we can offer a plausible explanation for how Justin Trudeau’s father could reasonably be Fidel Castro.

Physical Characteristics

Finally, we get to the elephant in the room which is Justin Trudeau’s remarkable resemblance.

After all, if we’ve learned anything from the Schwarzenegger scandal, it’s that you shouldn’t overlook the fact that the maid’s son looks exactly like Arnold.

Arnold's son

First, let’s look at the photographic resemblance:

Exhibit A

Exhibit B

Exhibit C

Right, Justin Trudeau models his Movember moustache. On the left, Fidel Castro during a 1955 visit to New York City.

Compared this to pictures of Pierre Trudeau:

Exhibit D

Pierre Elliott Trudeau | Biografie și fapte

Exhibit E – Slightly younger 

Review: Just Watch Me: The Life of Pierre Elliott Trudeau 1968-2000, by  John English - The Globe and Mail

Exhibit F – Even Young Trudeau does look much like him

Young Trudeau: 1919-1944: Son of Quebec, Father of Canada: Nemni, Max,  Nemni, Monique, Johnson, William: 9780771067495: Books - Amazon.ca

But where I think the differences become most obvious are in the heights of the men.

Justin Trudeau is a tall man, but I couldn’t get a good measure of his height. He is listed as 6 foot 2 inches in many articles on the net but that doesn’t seem accurate. It turns out that the media lists him at this height because he’s taller than Donald Trump who is listed at about 6 foot 3 inches. The point is to make Trump out to be a liar.

Justin Trudeau proves Trump overstating his own height by two inches- which  means he may be obese | Daily Mail Online

What’s the truth? Let’s kill two birds with one stone and try to establish the height of his “alleged” father Fidel Castro instead because it’s clear from this picture that Justin is 1-2 inches taller.

So how tall is Fidel? He’s about as tall as Muhammad Ali who, as a professional athlete, measures in at 6 foot 3 inches tall.

Under Fidel Castro, Sport Symbolized Cuba's Strength and Vulnerability -  The New York Times

So in fact, Justin Trudeau is closer to 6 foot 4 inches, possibly even 6 foot 5 inches tall. That’s why he’s taller than both Donald Trump and Fidel Castro.

How tall is Pierre Trudeau? 5 Foot 10 Inches

Oh wait, Justin wasn’t done growing in that picture. Here’s a more recent comparison:

I think you get my point.

Which couple is more statistically likely to result in a 6 foot 4 inch man? Margaret is 5 foot 6 inches.

  • 6 ft 3 inch Father + 5 ft 6 inch Mother
  • 5 ft 10 inch Father + 5 ft 6 inch Mother 

I haven’t looked into the exact probabilities of this yet, but I’m sure somebody will do the math. But, we’re talking about many standard deviations. The point is that it’s very unlikely for Justin to be so much taller than Pierre.

Well, maybe it’s because the Mother has “tall genes”! Nope, his brother Alexandre Trudeau is not tall.

And Alexandre is balding like just his father…while Justin isn’t.

Alexandre Trudeau | Speaker | Filmmaker

So from a physical standpoint, there is no way that you can make a better case for Pierre Trudeau being Justin’s father.

So what you are left with is the official narrative.


So what is the verdict?

I don’t think you can say that anything is definitively proven. Short of a DNA test, this is all speculation.

But the door is wide open for a whole bunch of speculation.

As always, I recommend you take a look at the evidence and decide for yourself.

I personally am of the school of thought that: if it looks like a duck, if it walks like a duck, if it quacks like a duck, it is a duck.

Thanks if you’ve read this far! Hope you enjoyed it and maybe learned something new.

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