“Russ is brilliant. Thank you for the really good explanation on this complicated situation.” – Reader comment
In politics, the order of every day is to grip your strategic interests tight & keep your tactical positions as flexible as possible. Never let your views on form (how) get you sideways of your interests (what/why). Ie care about the substance, not form. With that filter, what should Mike Johnson do right now? 1/x
Mike Johnson should pass a FULL YEAR continuing resolution that triggers the current law across-the-board reductions that would CUT nondefense spending by $73 billion/9% cut. Defense would NOT be cut. 2/x
Now, I hate continuing resolutions as much as the next person, because they normally extend the previous year’s spending. However, that is NOT the case in this particular moment bc of the unique situation we find ourselves in. Let me explain. 3/x
Kevin McCarthy & the Dems constructed a debt limit increase last year in which they were fundamentally trying to hide spending they both agreed to while making it appear to House Republicans that it was actually historic deficit reduction. 4/x
As part of that debt limit deal, negotiators set spending caps for this year, but the nondefense (NDD) cap was set artificially low ($704b), making it look like a cut. It was accompanied by a hand-shake “side deal” of $69 billion that would backfill all the agency accounts to keep the bureaucracy flush. This side deal (not in law) was secured in the person of one Kevin McCarthy to protect the cartels interests of business as usual. 5/x
These caps are enforced by across-the-board cuts (“sequesters”) of any amount of spending that exceeds them. Because the NDD cap was set lower, current law spending triggers a substantial cut automatically IF its the final spending bill of the year. And the defense cap was set higher than current law, so there is no cut. 6/x
My preference would be go to much, much lower. But the House has a slim majority now & even prior many of the spending cut amendments were failing. But the same manic, unreasonable fear of a shutdown from House Republicans is also what would ensure that the slim majority passes a full year CR triggering $73 billion in actual cuts & nearly $100 billion in less spending than Johnson is proposing now. 7/x
In short, conservatives like me opposed earlier short term CRs when the form detracted from our strategic purpose. This time, a full year CR is the best way to accomplish that same purpose given the change in circumstance (namely McCarthy losing his job). 8/x
If you don’t believe me, then please witness the Democrats losing their mind that this is all possible. (Love ya, Rosa) 9/x
From Politico
If you don’t believe me or the top House Dem appropriators, read CBO’s report on how all of this works. 10/x
And finally, because its confusing and people are asking, we are NOT talking about the 1% Massie cut that everyone made a big deal about last year. This is a much bigger deal. 11/11
