“We’re the Tea Party Express, we’re rockin’ to your town”

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“Up next: Christine O’Donnell for U.S. Senate in Delaware,” ~~ Amy Kremer, chairman of the Tea Party Express.

The Tea Party Express – Our Country Deserves Better PAC spent around $600,000 in the final weeks of Alaska’s Senate race to help Joe Miller boot Lisa Murkowski out of her US Senate seat. The California-based group plans to spend $250,000 to do the same for Christine O’Donnell’s effort to oust US Sen. Mike Castle.

The Tea Party Express has been on a win-streak in 2010, with election victories for Sharron Angle for U.S. Senate in Nevada, Marco Rubio for U.S. Senate in Florida, Mike Lee for U.S. Senate in Utah, Rand Paul for U.S. Senate in Kentucky, Scott Brown for U.S. Senate in Massachusetts, and many others.

The Tea Party Express has also been instrumental in the defeat or retirement of several liberal politicians including Congressman Bart Stupak, Senator Arlen Specter and Congressman Alan Mollohan.

It’s hard to say what effect the Tea Party Express will have on the race. Up until this point, it looked like Castle was firmly in control. But it’s hard to argue with the organization’s record — from Joe Miller in AK SEN to Sharron Angle in NV SEN. Keep in mind that if Castle loses, he’ll be the eighth establishment GOP candidate to go down in the primary. http://bit.ly/9kSxT9, http://bit.ly/aVITL9

~~ Hotline on Call

Larry Sabato gazes into his crystal ball and sees some objectively good news for GOP candidates:

Given what we can see at this moment, Republicans have a good chance to win the House by picking up as many as 47 seats, net. This is a “net” number since the GOP will probably lose several of its own congressional districts in Delaware, Hawaii, and Louisiana. This estimate, which may be raised or lowered by Election Day, is based on a careful district-by-district analysis, plus electoral modeling based on trends in President Obama’s Gallup job approval rating and the Democratic-versus-Republican congressional generic ballot (discussed later in this essay). If anything, we have been conservative in estimating the probable GOP House gains, if the election were being held today.

In the Senate, we now believe the GOP will do a bit better than our long-time prediction of +7 seats. Republicans have an outside shot at winning full control (+10), but are more likely to end up with +8 (or maybe +9, at which point it will be interesting to see how senators such as Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut, Ben Nelson of Nebraska, and others react).