After one year in office and his rehearsed and scripted reset press conference, will President Biden find a political bottom and turn his public opinion decline around?
This is the fundamental question for the Biden Democrats for 2022.
They have hardened and unanimously united the Republican base against them. They have alienated and lost the majority of the independent center.
Now there is serious erosion in the Democratic base. Without a major course correction, the political fortunes for the Biden Democrats in November are in grave jeopardy.
The results of our just completed national poll of 1,000 likely voters shows that as President Biden’s policies fail, America is in decline, and, with it, the Biden Coalition.
Only 32% of all voters say America is headed in the right direction. 65% of all voters say America is on the wrong track, including 36% of those voters who would vote for a Democrat for Congress and 70% among those who are undecided for Congress. This pessimism could cause President Biden’s low popular ratings to decline further and the Democratic vote for Congress to fall even further.
Republicans have their widest lead that we have seen in years for the generic ballot in Congress +5%, 48% to 43%. On the generic ballot, Republicans vote for the generic Republican 97% to 1%. Republicans win independents 43% to 32% and they win suburban voters 49%-41%.
If the 9% who are undecided break two to one for the Republicans, they could receive a decisive majority of the national congressional vote as high as 54%.
From President Biden’s strongest job approval last April of 58% approve, 41% disapprove, his ratings have declined a net -33% in less than a year to his worst rating in our polls to only 41% approve and 57% disapprove.
Among 2020 Biden voters, 22% now disapprove of the job he’s doing. 22% of Democrats, 25% of liberals, 25% of African American voters, 50% of Hispanic voters, 52% of women and 45% of urban voters now disapprove of the job Joe Biden’s doing. President Biden’s base is cracking up.
Even Joe Biden’s glib personality can’t save him. His favorable rating (42%) and unfavorable rating (57%) now matches his failed job rating. President Biden’s personality is being defined by his failure.
Last November, 59% of all voters thought President Biden should take a cognitive test and make the results public. It’s now 60%. This includes 38% of 2020 Biden voters, 39% of Democrats and 42% of liberals. President Biden’s base now doubts his ability to be president.
Kamala Harris is failing with Biden and can’t help him. Her favorable rating is 39% and 56% unfavorable.
Nancy Pelosi announcing that she will run again hasn’t helped her. The speaker’s favorable rating is only 33%, and her 61% unfavorable rating exceeds Biden and Harris’ negatives. Twenty-eight percent of Democrats and 32% of liberals are unfavorable to her.
Pelosi is leading the crack-up of President Biden’s Democratic base. There is no moderation or triangulation here.
The majority, 52%, think the economy is in recession, but only 30% of the voters say it’s getting better. Sixty-two percent of all voters say the economy is getting worse.
The majority prefers smaller government, 52%, to 34% for larger government. They continue to prefer free market capitalism to big government socialism 61% to 15%. Both majority positions are the opposite of Biden policy.
As further proof of the implosion of the Biden Democrat base among Democratic primary voters, if he were to run again, Biden receives only 25% of the vote. This is a disaster for an incumbent President.
Kamala Harris is down to single digits at 8%. Past nominee Hillary Clinton gets only 7%. As the Biden coalition cracks up, the Democrats are leaderless.
Without Biden in the contest, Michelle Obama gets 22% of the vote, Harris 16%, and Hillary Clinton and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez receive 9% each. Everyone else is in lower single digits.
In a direct inverse relation to Biden’s failure is the strong buyers’ remorse we predicted months ago in a meeting with President Trump.
Seventy percent of the Republican primary voters want President Trump to run again.
Eighty-one percent of Republican primary voters say if he runs again they will support President Trump. Only 15% would oppose.
Then in a hypothetically crowded field of 14 possible candidates President Trump dominates with 53% of the vote and in a distant second place Ron Desantis gets 13% and Mike Pence 9%.
Without President Trump the potential field of 18 candidates is a free-for-all with Ron DeSantis at 26%, Donald Trump, Jr. 18%, Mike Pence 12% and Ted Cruz 8%.
Most devastating for the Democrats is that President Trump now decimates the Biden coalition.
- President Trump defeats Joe Biden 49% to 44%.
- President Trump defeats Kamala Harris 51% to 40%
- President Trump defeats Hillary Clinton 51% to 41%.
In contrast to Joe Biden’s policy failures, the issues propel President Trump.
And 61% to 26% the voters approve making President Trump’s tax cuts permanent – this includes those who are undecided for Congress: approving 48% to 27% disapprove.
If they make Donald Trump’s tax cuts permanent and fully restoring property and income tax deductions to make your state income taxes and your local property taxes fully deductible again, the voter approval ticks up to 62% to only 23% disapprove. Among the undecided for Congress, they approve 56% to 23% disapprove.
The Trump tax cuts will win the election for Republicans again.
Traveling to the Winter Olympics won’t help President Biden either. The majority, 53%, disapprove allowing American athletes to compete in the upcoming Winter Olympics in China, because it has been documented the Chinese Communist Government is actively engaged in human rights abuses. Only 35% approve.
American businesses and corporations sponsoring the Winter Olympics in China could be a loser to for them and a bad investment because of China’s human rights violations such as slavery, forced labor, physical and sexual abuse against women and children as well as violating the religious and cultural freedoms of its citizens. Fifty-nine percent of the voters disapprove of the sponsorships and only 25% approve.
The New York City Democrats’ plan allowing foreigners and non-citizens to vote in local U.S. elections who have been in America for as little as 30 days may help in some local city council races, but at a steep national political price that 78% of all voters disapprove and only 15% approve. Opposition among current American voters is intense and broad across every region, political and demographic segment.
On another losing issue for the Biden Democrats, allowing biological men to compete in sports with college women and high school girls is approved by only 20% of all voters. Sixty-seven percent oppose. Opposition among voters is intense and broad across every region, political and demographic segment.
Finally, we can see why President Biden’s failure to contain or stop the virus has hurt him politically. Considering the recent waves of the coronavirus, most voters, 52%, think the United States needs to learn to live with it and restore personal freedoms. Only 36% think the government should take harsher measures including lockdowns and more personal restrictions and mandates as China has done.
Only Democrats, 54%, and liberals, 61%, support harsher measures. But even 30% of the Democrats and 27% of the liberals say we need to learn to live with it and restore freedom.
John McLaughlin has worked professionally as a strategic consultant and pollster for over 35 years. Jim McLaughlin is a nationally recognized public opinion expert, strategic consultant and political strategist who has helped to elect a U.S. President, Prime Ministers, a Senate Majority Leader, and a Speaker of the House. Read John and Jim McLaughlin’s Reports — More Here