By Kassandra White  May 29, 2022 at 10:04am 

(See also )

A new report in the Times of India claims that China is well in the process of developing invasion plans to attack Taiwan, but there are fears one weakness could upset the country’s plans.

The report said concerns center around the Pearl River area of Guangdong province.

”Stability of the Pearl River Delta would be key to the stability of Guangdong and China,” the report said.

According to the report, officials there left with marching orders to prepare plans to move to a war footing.

The report stated that the leaked audio tape “focuses on ensuring stable production and ensuring the security of the supply of important strategic materials. It mentions smashing Taiwan independence forces and not hesitating to start a war, resolutely defending national sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

The report said businesses and manufacturers must be ready to shift their focusfrom “focusing on economic development to ensuring strategic victory.”

The report said the province is expected to have 140,000 troops ready for war, along with 953 ships and 1,653 units of so-called “unmanned” equipment.

In addition, it said, “the National Defense Commission clearly stated that our province shall coordinate the implementation of the seven types of national warfare resources, including mainly, 64 10,000-ton roll-on/roll-off ships, 38 aircraft, 588 train cars and 19 civil facilities including airport and docks.”

The report also said, “After the meeting, the Provincial Party Committee General Office issues the minutes of the meeting. It is recommended that all departments follow the deployment of the meeting, immediately open a joint military-civilian command and operational command posts, specifically plan and deploy, and organize the province’s Normal to War status transition work.”

Will China seize Taiwan soon?

Last week, Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines called the threat that China will attack Taiwan “acute,” according to the New York Post.

​“It’s our view that they [the Chinese] are working hard to effectively put themselves into a position in which their military is capable of taking Taiwan over our intervention,” Haines said.

Taiwan is bracing for an attack, even if it does not know when.

Kamil Galeev – THREAD

Why didn’t China attack Taiwan? (a hypothesis) The inaction of China reportedly deeply disappointed the Russian elites. That’s understandable. Many expected that China would exploit the chaos in Europe seeing it as a chance to conquer Taiwan. Still, they didn’t invade. Why?

Why didn’t China attack Taiwan? (a hypothesis) The inaction of China reportedly deeply disappointed the Russian elites. That’s understandable. Many expected that China would exploit the chaos in Europe seeing it as a chance to conquer Taiwan. Still, they didn’t invade. Why?

With the victorious Qing army marching south, the last Ming loyalists had little choice but to escape. A fraction led by a Ming loyalist and a pirate admiral Koxinga chose to evacuate their base from the mainland. The Dutch-controlled Taiwan (Formosa) looked as an obvious choice.

Koxinga’s troops smashed the Dutch and took control of the island. Tonio Andrade whom I highly recommend framed this as the victory of China over the West. But it was not the central government in Beijing that captured Taiwan for China, it was a defeated fraction in the civil war

Civil strife being a trigger of the territorial expansion is a well-known pattern in the history of the British Isles. Stuarts are imposing the High Church (yeah, it’s ahistorical term, but it conveys the idea) conformity so the Puritans have to escape to what is now New England

Civil War brings the fall of the Stuarts and the Low Church triumphs over the High . Most English overseas possessions were reluctant to accept the defeated Cavaliers. Except for Virginia, whose governor welcomed them warmly. Soon they comprised the bulk of the local ruling class

Considering that the American North and the South were built by the political emigres who represented the two opposing fractions in the English Civil War, and hold the opposite views on nearly everything, it’s striking how they managed to live in relative peace for so long

At least this is the impression I had when reading this book. You may disagree with its conclusions, but they’re certainly interesting. Its argument is way more nuanced than what I just outlined, I just don’t want to go any further for now

Thinking in higher orders, the story of the British civil wars and the emigration waves they triggered reminded me of the following idea. “It was probably the inability to live in peace with each other rather than thirst for food or resources that triggered the human expansion”

The Transition from Ming to Qing that triggered the destruction of European colonies on Taiwan and the true incorporation of the island into China may be a good example of this pattern. It was not the government who conquered it, it were the evacuating rebels

Being located far enough from the mainland to grant a certain security but close enough to allow for a mass evacuation, Taiwan was an obvious choice of a safe haven for a losing fraction in the civil war. In the 17th c it would be Ming, in the 20th c it was the Kuomintang

The civil war between the KMT and the Communists with the numerous warlord fractions clinging to this or that side, had been going for decades. During the WWII the KMT was too busy fighting the Japanese. WIth the KMT attention deflected, the Communists grew very much stronger

Upon the end of the WWII, Communists were ready to crystallise their new influence by effectively dividing the country with the KMT. In 1945 Mao Zedong offered Chiang Kai-shek to keep the south, living a few northern provinces (including Beiping) to Mao. Chiang refused. See p. 55

Back in 1945 Communists wanted to divide China into two zones of influence because they still perceived themselves as a weaker side in the civil war. But by 1949 they were winning. With victorious Communists marching south, the KMT had little choice but to evacuate to Taiwan

Let me summarise: – It’s not necessarily the unity that triggers the territorial expansion. It’s quite often the division – It was the division of China that triggered the incorporation of Taiwan into its structure. Taiwan was an obvious refuge for the losers in a civil war

– Communists didn’t always stand for the unity of China. They wanted to divide it while being weaker – In 1945-1949 the balance of power between the CPC and KMT reversed – Taiwan was the only foothold the KMT could evacuate to and realistically hope to keep from the CPC onslaught

That’s enough for today, I’ll continue next time. End of