- China’s response to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s recent visit to Taiwan gives a glimpse of what future conflicts could look like.
- China’s military drills have demonstrated its resolve and ability to invade Taiwan, but these exercises also suggest that Beijing is testing new strategies on Taiwan. Rather than an outright invasion, Beijing may first impose a blockade on Taiwan to starve the island’s economy while cutting off the island’s contact with the outside world and preventing economic and military aid from arriving from Taiwan’s allies.
Such a blockade will devastate the world economy because Taiwan sits in the South China Sea, where more than a third of international trade volume passes annually. The Chinese military’s persistent presence will disrupt commercial activities in the region, and ripple effects will be felt worldwide.
Additionally, the PLA may implement the large-scale coordinated drills we just witnessed in the Taiwan Strait. “not only does this heighten anxiety in Taipei (and probably other regional capitals as well), but it helps to disguise any preparations for a real military campaign” because “China needs an element of surprise to be able to take Taiwan before America has time to mobilize adequate forces in the region to defend the island.”