Topic: Elections

The methodology for 2016 matters for 2020. 

This article will help you see through the media deception present in 2016 and understand what the Trump campaign saw in both runs. 

https://skeshel.substack.com/p/

Capt. Seth Keshel4 hr ago32

Everywhere I go, or on any new podcast, I am generally asked how I got involved in the election integrity movement.  Some believe it all began in the aftermath of the stolen 2020 “election,” but my serious work in political analytics began in 2016.  I have always been “conservative,” even before I was old enough to cast a vote.  Life’s learning process refined my views, and by the time Donald J. Trump rolled out his campaign in 2015, I was a fire-breathing, anti-establishment populist.  I have little admiration for anything dubbed “conservative” without a substantial track record of positive impact associated with it.  Unfortunately, conservatives don’t conserve much these days.

In 2016, I called all 50 states, including the split electoral votes of Maine and Nebraska, plus Washington, D.C., accurately.  Unfortunately, thanks to my lack of significant online presence at that time, you’ll need to take my word for it.  11 days prior to the election, I had an article published in American Thinker that accurately highlighted the severe disparity between two mainstream polls that were seven points off of one another, the same percentage by which John McCain was utterly annihilated by Barack Obama in 2008.  How could the media miss nearly ten million votes of margin between two candidates in a nationwide poll, if not for complete fabrication of polling data?

A few days later, just before the election, I mapped out the race, and wound up calling every state accurately.  I had learned the tricks of party registration analysis, thanks to Larry Schweikart, and saw the pro-Trump shift happening in rapid fashion in the industrial Midwest.  You can blame the media for directing my attention to that phenomenon.  You see, for over a century, Ohio has shown the political pulse of America.

The candidate who carried Ohio won every election, save for two (1944 and 1960), since 1896.  One does not simply carry Ohio, which has long been a perfect political cross-section of the nation, and lose an election in miserable fashion.  That is why it was plainly idiotic for the press to let on that Trump would carry Ohio and somehow lose the national race by up to 12 points.

The work of the CNN/ORC polling organization, published on September 14, 2016, showed not only a Trump lead in Florida, but a lead of five points in Ohio.  Ohio is (or was) the kind of state that is likely to produce a one or two point race between an ice cream cone and a kick in the neck, and CNN is tapping me on the shoulder to let me know that Donald Trump, as a political neophyte, is going to carry the most notable bellwether state by an admitted five points, in polling conducted two months before the election?

There are two rules for “polling” that the consumer must understand to filter through all of the B.S.  First, modern media polling is done for two purposes.  The first purpose is to suppress the turnout of voters who will support ideologies that do not have the blessing of the political establishment.  Currently, that would be America First patriots, but could be extended to “democratic socialists” if and when the need arises.  The second purpose is to justify final election outcomes.  Can you think of a better way to justify a flip of Georgia than to suggest through polling that the race is “tight,” despite an impending record Republican turnout in a Republican stronghold?

The “pro-Republican” clause of polling consumption suggests that an admitted Republican lead is practically a guaranteed victory.  In fact, the only state that appears to have Republican strength generally overestimated in polling is Nevada, and we probably know why those results never pan out.  I took the concession of Ohio by the mainstream media by five points two months out to mean a victory by at least eight points (accurate) was likely in November.

Since the same voting population, heavy with non-college white voters, is prevalent throughout Pennsylvania and Michigan, a historical look at how Ohio trended with those two states led me to the truth about 2016 – that the media was running suppression polling to deaden Trump’s momentum in the middle of a coalition shift in the freshly competitive “Rust Belt.”

Adding fuel to the predictive fire was the obvious fact that Trump spent very little time or money on Georgia, Texas, or Arizona.  A true wipeout election favoring Clinton would take at least two of those states with it, and potentially flip some dark horse states that were competitive for Obama just eight years before.  Instead, Trump was busy going after Iowa, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Florida, one district of Maine, and eventually Minnesota.  A candidate losing mainstay red states would not have the oxygen in the tank to go after a bunch of Obama states.

Party registration trends (not available in every state) favored the GOP in Iowa, Ohio, Nevada, Florida, North Carolina, and most notably, Pennsylvania.  The Ohio situation presented by the MSM made it clear that Trump’s time spent in the region was done so for good reasons, and he knew it.  With nearly two-thirds of the states predictably going to one party of the other, it made my 2016 prediction much easier to stick.

Election fundamentals at the presidential level are very predictable.  Trump’s team knew these points in 2016, which is why they attacked the “Rust Belt” with such ferocity.  2016 offers insight to the true intentions of the media as pertains to manipulating the voter experience in our elections.  They knew their numbers were not credible, and that some people could see through the crap; however, our elections are decided by razor-thin margins, and the deception just missed out on holding the tipping point states of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan in the “blue column.”  Those three went to President Trump by a combined 78,000 votes.

The story of 2016 is critical to understanding how I landed on this battlefield in the days following November 3, 2020.  Stay tuned.

SK

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