Topic: Elections

Capt. Seth Keshel, Apr 12

As I pass the halfway point of highlighting clear national trends, indicators, predictors, and bellwethers signaling a Trump landslide in 2020, it should be re-stated that honest citizens simply want transparency in elections.  Nearly everyone is willing to accept legitimate results; however, when every guidepost available foretells a result 180 degrees different from the one presented, resistance to proclaiming legitimacy should be expected.

Larry Schweikart, the former professor and author of the must-own book, A Patriot’s History of the United Statesmay be unaware that he is the one who alerted me to the importance of voter registration by party as a predictor all the way back in 2016, when I used it to properly forecast the 2016 election.  We know polling is trash, used to suppress votes of patriots and justify fraudulently derived outcomes, but most don’t realize that voter registration by party (not available in all states) is nearly impeccable when it comes to forecasting election results.  Put simply, if a party gains in registration between elections, you should expect an increased margin of victory if that party won the previous election, or a decreased margin of defeat (or a flip of the race) if that party lost the previous election.  This is generally applicable at the county and state levels.  In fact, it is the method I used to predict Florida to Donald Trump by over 300,000 votes, making me one of few to do so. 

States that register voters by party (32 + DC): AK, AZ, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, ID, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SD, UT, VT, WV, WY, DC

Observe the change in “Party ID” in Pennsylvania (below), and its impact on statewide presidential results since 2004.  In 2004, John Kerry won the state narrowly over George W. Bush, by 2.5%, when his party had a registration advantage of 6.9% in the state (6.9% more registered Democrats than Republicans in the state).  The failures of the Bush administration, combined with the emergence of the charismatic Barack Obama riding a tailwind pendulum shift, led to the state becoming an additional 7.3% more Democrat in registration for 2008, signaling a Democrat blowout well left of Kerry’s winning margin.  He wound up winning the state by 10.3%, the biggest Democrat margin of victory since 1964. 

The non-college white voter stopped identifying with the Democrat Party loyally during Obama’s first term, as that party became openly anti-industry and overly concerned with wokeness rather than economic sustainability, an issue of utmost importance in the Industrial Midwest.  While the GOP only made up a point of registration going into 2012 (because Democrats lost far more registrations, not because Romney drove them up), it was still sufficient to foreshadow the state trending nearly 5% more Republican, with Romney himself barely gaining votes.  It was Obama’s massive losses (286,000 votes in Pennsylvania alone) in reelection, more than Romney’s meager gains, that put the state on a Republican trajectory.

Once a Republican with an actual working-class agenda emerged (Trump), Pennsylvania voters responded by trending heavily more Republican in voter registration so they could cast Trump votes in the 2016 primary.  The Democrats plummeted in registrations once the unique Obama was off center stage, and Republicans made up 2.8% in registrations.

The results are striking.  In the graphic above, 60 of 67 counties (map on left) are shown to trend Republican in registration.  In the 2016 results, 62 of 67 counties (map on left) become more Republican in the vote.  The result is a flip of Pennsylvania that the polling-educated were too ignorant to see coming.

Trump was clearly so unpopular (sarcasm) in his term that Pennsylvanians continued the trend that foreshadowed a red Pennsylvania, registering at a 21:1 ratio (242,000 net new GOP, 11,000 net new Democrat registration) heading into 2020.  This is just the behavior (again, sarcasm) that we may expect when a state wants to give record vote totals to Joe Biden, who barely campaigned and opposes everything Pennsylvanians hold dear.

As seen in 2016, 60 of 67 counties became more Republican in party registration, but this time, only 20 counties became more Republican in the vote – the full impact of filthy voter rolls, no-excuse mail-in voting, tactically placed drop boxes, and several days to count votes.  Trump set a record for votes gained in one election, beating Barack Obama’s 2008 record in a state that is set to lose an electoral vote (not growing substantially), just to be eclipsed by a political retread with no solutions in mind for a state that has been trending Republican for over a decade.

Party registration trends alone suggest a Trump win in Pennsylvania of no less than 6%, and perhaps more than 10%.  My numbers are lenient.  Other key states that register by party trended Republican in registration during Trump’s term, like North Carolina and Florida, both won in 2016 and trending heavily in Trump’s favor in 2020.  Nevada, New Mexico, and Oregon all trended in favor of the GOP; curiously, Arizona trended slightly Democrat statewide, but with Republicans having record gains in Maricopa County and statewide.  There is more here for a separate article about voter registration, but the phantom voters appear to enjoy registering by party, as well.

Registration numbers aid in identifying fraudulent voting all across the country.  They also make up this critical sixth point of the ten irrefutable points surrounding the 2020 election and raise the question, “Why did nearly every state that registers voters by party trend, in many cases heavily, for the Republicans led by Donald Trump, just so they could vote in the opposite direction?”  Many years of history lend credence to the validity of this method, and you should make it a point to educate others as to its reliability. 

SK