Topic: Elections

Capt. Seth KeshelApr 13

The seventh irrefutable point of the 2020 election, complete with its mandate for full remediation, revisits the correlation of political bellwethers, which are leading indicators of final election outcomes.  I have already shared the importance of the coalition of bellwether states in this series, and why their ties to working class sentiment influence presidential races and give us early indicators of who should be winning these elections.

I cared about one thing, and one thing alone, in the first stage of election counting on November 3, 2020.  I was watching Florida like a hawk.  Trump was a slam dunk to carry Ohio, and when Florida and Ohio go together, they don’t tend to miss aligning with the ultimate winner of the presidency.  They managed to miss in 1960, when Nixon carried both, but electoral chaos in Illinois created a controversial finish that gave John F. Kennedy the keys to the White House.

When Florida went big for President Trump, even more so than in 2016, and I saw the margins in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, I immediately assumed President Trump’s reelection victory was all but assured.  My assurance was based on decades of political indicators, and the trend of Florida had perfectly correlated to the trend of Michigan and Pennsylvania for 88 years leading up to the 2020 election.  If Florida goes right, so do Michigan and Pennsylvania.

The seventh point is precisely summed up in this article, which is posted below:

This article will put you in the war room I inhabited on the night of November 3, 2020.  I noticed the fraud, even down to the county level, in the wee hours of November 4, and set out to work almost immediately on remedying this fraud, which is a mission that continues to this day.  If I was looking at Ohio in 2016, then I was looking at Florida in 2020.  All predictions rested on the trend of the Sunshine State in President Trump’s re-election campaign.

If polls were hyped up in 2016 to squash turnout for Donald Trump, it goes without saying that nearly every Trump supporter should have expected the same, but even worse, to oust an extremely popular and effective incumbent.  If you need a refresher, check out this article showing the Washington Post lying about a massive “17-point” Biden lead in Wisconsin.  This was only 16.5 percent off in the certified totals, and probably more like 22 points off in reality.

Whereas in 2016 I was watching Ohio and observing the coalition shift acknowledged by the media as it replicated itself in neighboring Pennsylvania and Michigan, I was watching Florida like a hawk to get a real read on how reelection night was going.  I had made a quick assessment that Trump’s reelection was in jeopardy if he either lost Florida or won it by a smaller margin than he won it by in 2016 (1.2%); conversely, if the state went to Trump by a larger margin, it was easy for me to predict Trump would secure his reelection.

Examine the chart below.  You can see why Florida was always in the bag for Trump.

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That graphic shows the result of Florida tracking perfectly with party registration trends for the preceding four years.  A massive movement toward GOP party registration in Trump’s first term at the state level foreshadowed a much larger victory than 1.2%, just as a 2.1% movement toward GOP registration in Obama’s final term indicated that the narrow Democrat victory margin in 2012 would not hold up in 2016.  Additionally, Florida is historically strong for incumbents.  Jimmy Carter was the last incumbent to fail to carry Florida.  Only a fool of the highest caliber would have Florida in the Biden column, and could use only “polling” to justify such an idiotic decision.

Even over tons of fraud, Trump carried Florida by 370,000 votes, and pushed the state hard to the right.  One of the major drivers was a huge coalition shiftin South Florida of the minority working class changing over to support Trump in an anti-communist wave.  Trump’s totals in the whiter, more conservative areas of Florida are enormous, and had to be, given that Trump gained 1.05 million votes over his previous total.  In a fraud-free election, I believe Trump would have carried Florida by at least 6.6 percent, and perhaps upward of 10 percent.

Now, why am I going on about Florida, which is a state Trump won on election night?  Because Florida has a perfect correlation to the political trajectories of Michigan and Pennsylvania since 1932.  All three states have large populations of non-college white voters, who have long held the key to the White House.  In every election since 1932, if Florida became more Republican than the previous election (won by more or lost by less by the GOP candidate), Pennsylvania and Michigan were also always stronger for the GOP candidate.  If Florida became more Democratic than the previous election, Pennsylvania and Michigan also always went in the same direction (won by more or lost by less by the Democrat candidate).

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When Trump nearly flipped Miami-Dade County, and the media stopped the fight in Florida with Trump ahead in a cakewalk, Pennsylvania and Michigan were pouring out ridiculous landslide numbers in favor of the incumbent that pointed to a quick shower for the Biden campaign.  The same dynamics seen that night in Florida were clearly underway in two states with mostly stagnant or declining county populations, driven by America First trade positions, and well on their way to producing record Republican totals that had been being chipped off the Democrat column for a decade.

Only it didn’t hold up.  Michigan and Wisconsin were pulled in after everyone went to sleep, in the wee hours of November 4.  Several days had to elapse to pull in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada.  Why is it that Florida, a working class state with a huge populist undercurrent, trended much more Republican, and Pennsylvania and Michigan posted massive, record-setting Republican vote gains across nearly every county, just for the states to trend in separate directions for the first time in 88 years?

Most suspected something was off based on the stoppage of counts.  They aren’t wrong.  But I knew these very specific details on election night, and that is what allowed me to jump into the fray immediately.  In my next article, you’ll read about why these things had to be as they were.  Why Florida was allowed to stay in the Trump column as election night progressed, why Arizona was a must-win as the map filled in, and how the math was re-arranged in the back rooms.

SK